The rupee (INR) ended flat on Tuesday at 81.9163 against the dollar (USD). In line with our expectations, it remains within the key levels of 81.60 and 82.15. Although there was some downward pressure in the first half of last week which resulted in the INR quickly sliding below the support at 82.15, it recovered to the current level of 81.9163 despite negative foreign capital inflows. .
According to NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited) data, the net outflow of FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investor) stood at $287 million in the past week. However, for the current month, cash flow is positive at $825 million.
As it stands, the risks appear to be evenly balanced and therefore the rupee is likely to be in the range mentioned above.
The rupee is unlikely to trend in the near-term as it lies between a few key levels. Unless the local currency moves out of the 81.60-82.15 range, we cannot confirm the next trend. A break of 81.60 could result in the domestic unit rapidly rising to 81.10. On the other hand, if the INR turns down from here and drops below the support at 82.15, we could see a drop to 82.50.
Read: Where will the rupee go in 2023?
The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently range-bound, fluctuating between 100.80 and 102.20. But the broader trend is bearish for DXY. If the bears regain strength and drag it below 100.80, it can quickly drop to 99.25. But if there is a recovery leading to a break of the barrier at 102.20, the dollar index can rally to 103.50.
As it stands, the probability of the rupee moving on both sides is the same. But the 81.60-82.15 range is still valid. We hope this will remain relevant next week. So don’t expect a strong move in the USDINR pair this week.