Chances of the warm water phenomenon El NinoThe US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said that droughts in Asia and floods in the Americas over the next few months have increased to more than 90%.
“An ENSO-neutral (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) transition is expected over the next few months, with a more than 90% chance that El Niño will continue to extend into winter in the Northern Hemisphere. ,” CPC said in its El Nino tracking update Today.
Its predictions come shortly after the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said from July six out of seven models showed the El Niño threshold for sea surface temperatures would be reached or exceeded. It says all models are headed for the August development event.
“The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. All five models suggest that a positive IOD event could develop in June,” the BOM said.
At least weak El Nino is likely
The CPC says a potentially significant El Niño is imminent with at least one weakness likely. “…the range of possibilities by year-end (November to January) includes an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño to a 55% chance of a strong El Niño,” it said. .
However, the CPC warns that “there is still a chance that the tropical atmosphere does not combine with the ocean and El Niño does not materialize (5-10% chance)”.
The BOM said the Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO-neutral (not La Niña or El Niño), with unusually warm temperatures both east and west of the basin.
It says ocean ENSO readings continue to warm and is forecast to reach El Niño thresholds during winter, with little or no change to El Niño in atmospheric ENSO readings .
BOM retains ‘watch’
In view of this, the Australian weather agency has withheld an “El Nino clock”, meaning there is a 50% chance the event will develop in 2023.
Last week, the UN The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said: After spending three consecutive La Niña years yielding bountiful crops for some and crop failures for others, “we may be heading straight into El Niño.” However, they said they are uncertain about the impact of El Nino because “no two events are alike”.
The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), an agency supported by FAO’s weather organization World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says the southwest monsoon, the key to the state’s agriculture mainland India, could see normal to below-normal rainfall across most parts of South Asia. Asia.
WMO says the possibility of El Nino developing this year is increasing.