The domestic commercial vehicle industry is expected to grow at a single digit rate in fiscal year 2024. According to the automakers, the growth will be led by the rise of buses including vans. electric buses across the country.
The medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment is expected to grow between 8% and 10% amid increased infrastructure development.
“Industry volume remains below 2019 peak while commercial vehicle sector grows in 2023. We expect the first quarter to see a slowdown in growth due to pre-buying, transitional effects. to BS6 2 and the price increase happened. One should see growth in Q2, Q3 and Q4,” said Girish Wagh, CEO of Tata Motors during the earnings call.
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Wagh added, “There are favorable headwinds for the industry and growth can vary across segments throughout the year. The highest growth is likely for buses as buses remain lower, followed by medium and heavy commercial vehicles.”
According to credit rating agency ICRA, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to grow between 7 and 10 percent.
“The major impact of the phase-out policy is expected to be on the CV segment, especially passenger transport, as the use of other vehicles such as two-wheelers and passenger vehicles over 15 years will is limited. ICRA estimates the number of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) over 15 years old currently at ~1.1 million units, offering significant potential for elimination,” said Kinjal Shah, Vice President & Co. Team Leader, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited said.
Shah added: “Even if some of these vehicles are phased out and with the government forced to phase out vehicles, it could bring in new car sales by boosting demand for replacements. position.”
The electric bus segments mainly used by the government are also seeing increased demand from retail consumers.
Wagh added: “More and more private customers are interested in electric buses as many companies have also started moving towards net zero targets for greenhouse gas emissions.
Himanshu Singh, Research Director, said: “The impact of rising interest rates, the impact of El-Nino rains, rising inflation, increased competition, a global recession led to a slowdown in the growth of the economy. Indian economy”. Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd.
